Week five was a high-scoring fantasy week – it took 245 points to win the Draftkings NFL $50k Pylon. I finished 704 out of 19,817. A Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase stack helped, as did Kraft at TE. Henry and Sermon were solid but not spectacular last week. Unfortunately, Amari Cooper, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tre Tucker combined for 18.60 Draftkings points, leaving me with a 176.38 total. I scored 196.88 in a minimax lineup, as I had DJ Moore instead of Cooper.
At any rate, my GPP builds are improving, which is encouraging. I won all three cash game entries last week, bringing my double-up ‘record’ to 10-2. If these results continue, I am going to have to scale up my cash game efforts.
Buccaneers at Saints – O/U 41.5
This is a game that FEELS like it should have a higher combined total, but Derek Carr will be out with an injury, and both teams play at slower paces than the league average.
Derek Carr is out, Chris Olave has never exceeded 16 Draftkings points in a game, and Rashid Shaheed is a weekly boom/bust play. Alvin Kamara is currently questionable.
For the Bucs, White is out and Bucky Irving is a volume-based play against the Saints, who rank 15th in yards per carry surrendered and 27th in run stop win rate. They most recently surrendered over 100 yards to Kareem Hunt, so there’s that.
Cash plays: Bucky Irving
GPP plays: Bucky Irving
Cardinals at Packers – 47.5 O/U
Did Dontayvion Wicks fail you last week? He cost me money, but the logic behind playing him was sound. Sometimes, it doesn’t work out.
The Cardinals are almost six-point underdogs on the road in Green Bay, so playing James Conner should be a fade, except in GPPs. Playing Conner flouts convention wisdom, but Green Bay ranks 28th in the NFL in run stop win rate, whereas the Cardinals rank 7th in run block win rate. These numbers are certainly not the end-all be-all, but they tell us that there’s a possible mismatch.
If the Cardinals can control the ball and the clock early, they will have a chance. They pulled off a road upset in SF last week, so that bodes well for them. Another GPP play is Marvin Harrison Jr. – the Packers have given up the fifth most PPR points per targe to perimeter wide receivers.
The Packers offense is appealing, but the targets could get spread around quite a bit with the return of Christian Watson and emergence of Tucker Kraft. Game environment is everything – if you think that this game will shoot out, be sure to mix and match pieces from both sides. Tinker with various stacks and bringbacks. Murray/Harrison Jr, and Wicks makes sense in this scenario. Love/Reed, and McBride is another one. Lots of possibilities here.
If you don’t think this game will shoot out, avoid the secondary receiver options on both sides.
Colts at Titans – O/U 43
Trey Sermon is a volume play. The field loves Tony Pollard due to the matchup, but my gut tells me to fade him. Pollard has hit or exceeded 20 fantasy points just ONCE since the start of last season, and the Titans offense ranks 18th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and 19th in yards per carry. These stats are validated by their 24th overall run block win rate ranking. With a projected ownership of almost 30%, he’s an easy fade in GPPs.
I really don’t like any other offensive pieces from this game. It could be a slog.
Browns at Eagles – O/U 42.5
The Eagles are almost TEN point favorites tomorrow. Wow.
It’s hard to recommend any pieces from the Browns for this matchup. The Browns run defense has been a weakness, as they are ranked 24th in the league. Fire up Saquon Barkley in all formats. Their pass defense is much better, as they are ranked 7th in the NFL. This has a Saquon/Eagles defense stack written all over it. Due to his hefty price tag on Draftkings, Barkley is projected to be owned at around 8%.
There are other playable pieces from the Eagles, such as Brown, Smith, and Goedert, but I don’t foresee enough passing volume to justify any of them.
Now, random variance is a real force. For large-field GPPs, I would throw in a few contrarian Browns stacks in the unlikely event that Watson figures it out against the Eagles. A Watson-Cooper stack with Brown or Smith as the bring back will do it. Again, this will likely flop, but random variance does strike once in a while.
Texans at Patriots – O/U 37.5
The Patriots are throwing Maye to the wolves – they rank last in the NFL in pass block win rate – the Texans rank fourth in pass rush win rate – it could be a long day for Maye.
Antonio Gibson will get the RB reps for the Patriots. He’s a volume-based play and could get plenty of checkdown receptions if Maye is under duress and uses him as a security blanket.
The Pats have permitted the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends, so Dalton Schultz is in play.
There’s not much scoring upside for this game, so any players not yet mentioned are fades for the week.
Commanders at Ravens – O/U 51.5
Daniels, Jackson, and Henry are starts in all formats. McLaurin is a solid GPP play. Zay Flowers has yet to reach 20 fantasy points in his young career – will tomorrow be the day?
Brian Robinson is out, so Austin Ekeler becomes a solid play in most formats.
The secondary options aren’t great – McLaurin is the undisputed top option for Daniels, and LaMar likes to spread the ball around. Still, there should be some fireworks in this one.
Chargers at Broncos – O/U 35.5
Do yourself a favor and fade offensive players from this game. Either defense is a fair play, but otherwise, there isn’t much upside.
Steelers at Raiders – O/U 36.5
Here’s another game with a low combined total. Justin Fields is always playable in GPPs due to his rushing upside. Brock Bowers is quickly becoming a weekly play due to volume and could be a security blanket for Aiden O’Connell.
I’ve been burned by Najee Harris several times this season, and due to personal bias, will be fading him, and most of this game.
Falcons at Panthers – O/U 47
The Falcons are a six-point road favorite – Bijan Robinson will be popular this week, but he hasn’t had that breakout game yet. The Panther defense has given up the sixth-most rushing yards per game – if Bijan IS going to break out, this is the spot. I’m skeptical, but could be wrong.
The Panthers pass defense has surrendered the sixth-most yards per pass attempt so far this season. Will there be enough volume for it to matter?
Chuba Hubbard has been ol’ reliable since Andy Dalton took over the reins at QB. His role in the passing game keeps him in play regardless of game environment, and he is a solid play in cash games and GPPs. Carolina’s offensive line isn’t great, but the Falcons are 26th in the NFL in run stop win rate, so Hubbard should do some damage on the ground if the game stays reasonably close. Here are some additional notes from this game:
- Dionte Johnson is a target-hog and will be close to 30% owned – he’s tied for the NFL lead in red zone targets.
- Drake London is breaking out, and Carolina has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. He’s playable in all formats.
- Darnell Mooney has 16 targets last week! Wow. Carolina might not keep this one close, so its hard to project volume for anyone not named Drake London.
- Rayray Mccloud is only $4300 on Draftkings, and is worth playing in GPPs as salary relief. He could flop, so avoid in single-entry games.
- Pitts is back on the map, but there are lots of mouths to feed in Atlanta.
- Ja’Tavion Sanders is receiving attention from the field with 8% projected ownership. He’s a great punt-play at TE with a salary below $3k.
Lions at Cowboys – O/U 52.5
There’s A LOT to consider for this game, so I’ll bullet point to make it easier to follow:
- The Detroit offensive line is in the top-5 for both run block win rate and pass block win rate, while the Dallas defense is in the bottom-half of the league in run stop win rate and pass rush win rate.
- Detroit has struggled against perimeter wide receivers, surrendering the third-most receiving yards – so Lamb and Tolbert are in play.
- Jameson Williams is a boom-or-bust play this week. He’s a coin toss. At 3% projected ownership, he’s worth speculation in large-field GPPs.
- Sam LaPorta has yet to exceed double-digit fantasy points in a game this season.
- Jake Ferguson is has a solid floor – he’s exceeded double-digit points in three consecutive games. He’s been targeted 25 times over that span.
Good luck
Week 6 could be a wild ride – the slate is made up of slogs and shootouts, with few in that “in between” territory.