Week 13 was a fun ride! I almost took down the Draftkings 150k Minimax, but could not quite get there:
Hey, I’ll take it.
At any rate, it’s time to take an early look at the week 14 main slate. This article is designed to be a quick read, a warmup if you will. No deep analysis, just a quick primer to get the wheels turning.
Panthers at Saints
The Panther passing game is becoming a weekly fade. Hubbard actually played well, rushing for over 100 yards against the Bucs. He’s not in a great spot as a road dog this week.
As for the Saints, they are dealing with multiple injuries, most notably to Derek Carr. I was hoping that Winston would be priced under $5k, but he’s at $5500, which curbs some of the appeal if he plays. Not loving too many pieces from this game yet, but will revisit later this week.
Rams at Ravens
The Ravens are almost 10-point favorites, but the Rams have the weapons to make this one competitive. At first glance, this one has sneaky shootout potential. Hard to play Williams with a high salary as a road dog. On the other side, the Ravens spread the ball around too much to like any receivers. Lamar is always playable as a standalone, or even as a stack with the Gus Bus.
Colts at Bengals
I wasn’t expecting a Jake Browning air raid against the Jax Jags, but he threw for over 350 yards and put the ball in Chase’s hands. The low total might keep the masses away from this game, but a Browning/Chase stack looks good at first glance.
An analyst from Stokastic mentioned liking Pierce during their ownership podcast last week, and he ended up with 100 yards and a touchdown at a cheap salary. I don’t love using multiple players from a game with a low total like this, but I’m keeping my eyes on it.
Jax Jags at Cleveland Brownies
Joe Flacco versus C.J. Beathard? It is unclear who will start for the Browns, but this game could be a slog. The Jags were just scorched by Browning and Chase, and also gave up two rushing touchdowns to Joe Mixon.
Cleveland’s defense performs better at home, so a Ford/defense stack could be in play. This is a game where it might be prudent to fade receivers entirely.
Lions at Bears
Whatever you do, keep an eye on the weather. December football in Chicago is a mixed bag.
This could be a tough divisional battle, but the over/under of 46.5 has my attention.
The Bears run defense has been stout this season, but both Gibbs and Montgomery rushed for 1 TD each when these two teams played in week 11. Also of note, fields ran for over 100 yards in that game.
Bucs at Falcons
I really thought that Bijan would take advantage of the Jets’ run defense as others have this season, but he didn’t. The Bucs were just torched by Hubbard, so Bijan is in play for me again this week, especially since he received 10 more carries than Allgeier while also adding three receptions. The Bucs have played well against the run this season but have surrendered 134 rushing yards per game over their last three games.
Rachaad White has been super-reliable since week 7, scoring 15 or more Draftkings points in each game since. He doesn’t have slate-breaking upside, but he should be in play for cash games. Otherwise, Mike Evans is playable every week, and Chris Godwin is an afterthought.
Texans at Jets
The Jets boast a top-3 pass defense and a bottom-5 run defense. Despite the matchup, Stroud is hard to fade. I like the Texans running game in this spot, but Pierce is getting the bulk of the work again and averaged a paltry 2.7 YPC against Denver last week. I’d avoid this timeshare unless there’s injury news. Speaking of injury news, losing Tank Dell hurts, but will open up opportunities for other pass catchers.
The Jets offense is a weekly fade at this point, no exceptions.
Seahawks at 49ers
I was not expecting D.K. Metcalf to go nuclear against a solid Dallas defense, but he scored 40 Draftkings points. Is he finally healthy? The 49ers trounced Seattle 31-13 just a few weeks ago, so it is hard to get excited, but this game has sneaky shootout potential. There are multiple pieces to like on both sides, and I’ll definitely want to take a deeper dive into the matchups as the week progresses.
Vikings at Raiders
This game has a fantasy-friendly over/under, but who will play QB for the Vikings? If Dobbs starts again, which Dobbs will show up? This is a healthy line, but there are lots of questions. This is one of those games where we follow the news as the week progresses, especially since Justin Jefferson might return.
This has the look of a shootout, but both teams are in the top ten in pass defense. If we are looking at recency, the Bills were recently scorched by the Eagles, and the Chiefs recently struggled to stop Jordan Love. Players on both sides are tough to project, but fading a game that Vegas has at 50+ points isn’t an option either.
Diggs hasn’t had a 100-yard game since October 15th, and is the most expensive WR on the slate. Davis is a boom-or-bust play, as is Shakir. Rice and Kelce are the obvious passing game places for KC.
Broncos at Chargers
Even though the Broncos somewhat contained Stroud, they allowed Collins to go bonkers with almost 200 yards receiving. Meanwhile, the Chargers were defeated the Pats by a score of 6-0. At first glance, Keenan Allen is obviously in play.
I’m not confident that Austin Ekeler is fully healthy, and will probably be fading him until he proves otherwise.
IMO, no Denver receivers have the upside needed for GPP consideration, but Courtland Sutton scores touchdowns and is in play for cash games, H2H, and props.
Thanks for reading. I’ll be providing more in-depth analysis as the week progresses.