NFL DFS Week 14: Quarterbacks for GPPs

Quarterback is always the first stop when building a weekly player pool. For GPPs/tournaments, the name of the game is upside.

Panthers at Saints

Bryce Young is a weekly fade at this point, unless he shows otherwise.

24 implied points isn’t a bad spot for Winston and the Saints. At $5,500, Winston could be a solid value. It’s worth noting that the Panthers boast a top-5 pass defense in terms of yards surrendered, and a top-10 for TD passes surrendered. Winston is probably best suited for cash games, as a GPP upside performance seems unlikely.

Rams at Ravens

Matthew Stafford is on a roll, as he just put up 279 yards and 3 TD passes against the Browns number #1 ranked pass defense. The Ravens have the #2 ranked pass defense, so this will be an interesting matchup. December football on the road in Baltimore is a tough spot, and I don’t see Stafford torching the Ravens this weekend.

Lamar Jackson is boom-or-bust defined. He could score 37 Draftkings points one week, only to follow it up with 11 the next week. He won’t be a favorite of mine this weekend, but that implied points total is too good to pass up. I’ll have some exposure to Jackson.

Colts at Bengals

The Cinci Bengals have a bottom-5 pass defense, and over their last three games, they’ve been the worst in terms of passing yards surrendered. While the over-under is low, the spread is tight, which means this game should stay competitive and have plenty of back-and-forth action, which bodes well for the offenses. Minshew has only exceeded 20 Draftkings points TWICE this season, but he could easily hit that mark against Cinci.

On the other side, Browning torched the Jax Jags last weekend with over 300 yards, a passing TD, and a rushing TD. I’m not expecting a repeat, but at $5,200, there’s value, especially if you stack with Chase.

Jax Jags at Cleveland Brownies

In this battle of old AFC Central opponents, we get C.J. Beathard vs. Joe Flacco. Neither provides GPP upside, even though they are cheap. I’m not included either one in my player pool this week.

Lions at Bears

Keep an eye on the weather for this one – the Windy City in December is tricky. The Bears run defense has been stout all-season long, but they did allow two rushing touchdowns to the Lions just a few weeks ago. Goff has thrown for two touchdowns in each of his last four games, so he is on a roll. He’s also played better on the road this season.

Justin Fields ran for over 100 yards a few weeks ago against the Lions and has as much upside as any quarterback on the slate. Slate-winning upside at $6,800? Sign me up.

Bucs at Falcons

Mayfield and Ridder are cheap, but the GPP ceiling isn’t there for either one. I’m not including them in my QB pool this week.

Texans at Jets

I don’t like the idea of fading Stroud, but there are other options at his price tag or cheaper with better matchups. Needless to say, the Jets offense is a weekly fade at this point.

Seahawks at 49ers

Geno Smith and company just torched the vaunted Dallas defense, so we know Seattle is capable. The 49ers crushed the Seahawks 31-13 just a few short weeks ago, so that casts doubt on Smith’s upside. The Dallas game feels like an outlier more than anything.

Brock Purdy has exceeded 20 Draftkings points seven times this season, and his price is catching up. He’s at $6,500 this week, which isn’t bad, but the 6k or below days are over.

Vikings at Raiders

Pictured above is the opening line, which has fallen all the way down to an over/under of 40 as the week has progressed.

Josh Dobbs’ recent 4 interception performance is fresh in the public’s mind, as he is projected for 2% ownership. Jefferson is back, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Even with the lower Vegas total, Dobbs feels like a sharp GPP play; he has demonstrated upside, he’s under $6k, and ownership is low. Additionally, he has rushing upside, which is always a bonus.

There’s really no reason to play Aidan O’Connell in DFS yet. He doesn’t have the upside for GPPs, and he doesn’t have the floor for cash games. If you’re punting QB, you’d be better off taking a shot on Flacco, Minshew, or even Ridder.

Bills at Chiefs

Given the line, it is obvious that this game has shootout potential. Both quarterbacks are expensive, but this is a spot where it is too risky to fade them entirely. Of note, Mahomes is experiencing a career-low in passing yards per game and per attempt this season, mostly because he doesn’t have many weapons.

Josh Allen throws lots of interceptions, but he has 24 passing touchdowns and 9 rushing touchdowns this season.

Broncos at Chargers

I don’t care how many analysts or experts promote Wilson, he’s not a GPP play. He rarely passes for over 200 yards and has only exceeded 20 Draftkings points twice this season. He’s an easy fade.

Herbert isn’t necessarily a bad option, but the Broncos are surging, and a ceiling performance seems unlikely.

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