NFL DFS Week 11 – Lines, Plays, Props, and Fades

Week 10 was a mixed bag for me and I ended up breaking even. I had plenty of exposure to Evans, Lamb, and Noah Brown, which helped. Unfortunately, I also had plenty of exposure to DeAndre Hopkins and Irv Smith Jr., which limited my upside for the week. Oh well, on to week 11!

Cowboys at Panthers

The Cowboys are a 10-point favorite, and as we saw last week, they WILL use their passing game to early and often. The Panthers pass defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL while ranking 26th in defensive DVOA. This unit can be exploited. A Prescott/Lamb stack is expensive on Draftkings this week, so you’ll need to find salary relief options if you want to go this route. I have no plans of playing any pieces of the Dallas running game.

While the Panthers will likely be playing from behind, the Dallas defense has not permitted ANY 100-yard receiving performances so far this season. I just don’t see any reason to play Thielen at $7500.

Top plays: Prescott, Lamb, Cooks

Fades: Carolina offense

Steelers at Browns

The Cleveland Browns possess the top pass defense in the NFL, and have intercepted SIX passes over their last three games. Kenny Pickett generally takes care of the ball, but it is hard to recommend any Steelers. Jaylen Warren could provide some value based on volume alone, as he is a dual threat. If Pickett needs to checkdown more than usual, expect Warren to get plenty of targets.

Believe it or not, Jordan Love almost threw for 300 yards against the Steelers last weekend. Watson is out for the season, so the Browns will be rolling with Walker. The Steelers give up a lot of yardage, but their red zone D is good. They are a “bend but don’t break” type of unit. Perfect game for field goal props!

Plays: maybe Warren

Fades: almost everyone

Props: Both kickers for over 1.5 FG made

Bears at Lions

The Lions are almost 10-point favorites at home. This is typically an ideal spot for running games, but the Bears run defense has been solid this season. They have not permitted a 100-yard performance this season, and are NUMBER 1 in the NFL in YPC surrendered:

While their defense DVOA rank is 28th, I’m sticking with the real-world stats on this one. They stop the run well, so I’m fading the Detroit run game, as blasphemous as it sounds. Given that Detroit is expected to score 27 points, Goff and St. Brown are obviously in play.

On the other side, Detroit has surrendered 300-yard passing performances in two of their last three games. Justin Fields will be back, and the Bears will be playing from behind. Not sure if I am ready to play Fields, but D.J. Moore should return to relevancy. It is also worth noting that Detroit has given up rushing touchdowns in their last three games, but it is hard to justify playing Chicago running backs given the likely game environment.

Cardinals at Texans

Experts have been pushing Hollywood Brown all-season long, but the results haven’t been there. During Kyler Murray’s first game back, Brown finished FOURTH in targets against the Falcons! It is worth noting that Murray barely missed Brown for a long TD pass. Wilson and Moore are potential salary relief options, and McBride is becoming a must-play:

The target-share for Texans receivers has been a riddle this season. Sometimes Collins is the right play, other times it is Dell, and then there’s Noah Brown. Dell is the chalky play at almost 20% ownership. Collins is a contrarian option for week 11 with a projected ownership of 1%. Brown is cheap and projects to be at 5% ownership. Brown was banged-up, but if he’s healthy, his upside and ownership are a steal at under $5k.

It is worth noting that Arizona has permitted four running backs to rush for over 100 yards this season. Singletary might end up chalky, but there’s too much value to pass up at $5300, even if Pierce returns.

Raiders at Dolphins

Big-time receivers have beaten the Miami defense this season; Diggs, AJ Brown, and Thielen have all put up 100+ and at least 1 TD against this defense. Still, it is hard to trust O’Connell, but the upstart Raiders have been playing much better since McDaniels was fired.

The Raiders rank 18th in overall yards allowed and 18th in defensive DVOA, so there aren’t awful, but they are beatable. Tyreek Hill is always a threat to break the slate, and Vegas is projecting 30 points for the Dolphins. He’s expensive, so you’ll need to find salary relief to play him.

Giants at Commanders

I played Sam Howell in almost every lineup when these teams played earlier in the season, and the Giants gave him fits. Howell spreads the ball around a ton, so it is hard to stack him. Curtis Samuel could be a nice salary relief option this week. He’s only $3600 on DK and is tied for the team lead in red zone targets. Otherwise, I do not plan on playing many pieces from this game.

Chargers at Packers

The Chargers possess the worst overall pass defense in the NFL, surrendering 291 yard per game. Jordan Love is far from an ideal option, but in order to pay up for studs this week, you’ll need to find salary relief somewhere. For GPPs with 20 or more entries, Love is a viable play. If you like risk, try stacking Christian Watson in this scenario. Remember, GPPs aren’t about playing it safe, but taking educated risks. Its entirely possible that Love scores over 20 DK points. It is also entirely possible that Watson finally puts up a solid performance against a bad Chargers secondary.

The Chargers offense obviously has weapons, but who knows if they’ll perform on the road at Lambeau, where the franchise has not had a victory since 1984.

Titans at Jaguars

I’m fading this game. Both teams are awful in the red zone and just don’t score a ton of points.

Bucs at 49ers

The 49ers have permitted 100-yard wide receiver performances in each of their last four games (Cooper, Addison, Chase, and Kirk). Mike Evans would be a lock, but he has an injured quad. Keep an eye on the news as Sunday approaches.

Six different receivers have put up 100 yards+ against the Bucs defense. The problem is that the 49ers don’t have a true #1 receiver as Purdy like to checkdown and likes to spread the ball around.

Jets at Bills

Love the Jets D at under $3000. Not much else.

Seahawks at Rams

The Rams have allowed 4 wide receivers to exceed 100 yards this season, but can Seattle’s inept offense capitalize? Vegas expects this to be a competitive game with a 1.5 point spread. Geno Smith smoked the Commanders last week, but, NINE Seahawks had at least one reception. Hard to find a ceiling game for DFS with that kind of distribution.

Its also hard to justify playing the Rams offense this week, as Stafford is returning from injury and may not be 100%. There are better risks to take. For the record, I’m nervous about being underweight on this game because of the shootout potential.

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