NFL DFS Week 10: Initial Thoughts

Week 9 was a wild ride, and my lineups FLOPPED:

  • I thought that the Giants defense would score double-digit DK points against Las Vegas. I was wrong.
  • Adam Thielen laid an egg.
  • Alvin Kamara laid an egg.
  • Lamar Jackson laid an egg.
  • I took a risk on Henderson, but the Rams couldn’t get going with Rypien at the helm.

At any rate, the beauty of DFS is that each week presents a “clean slate”.

Packers at Steelers

I don’t see any pieces coming close to their ceiling in this projected slog. Keep an eye on kicker field goal props, though. On DK Sportsbook, Boswell is +100 for 1.5 FG or more, and Carlson is +145 for 1.5 FG or more. I could easily see this game ending with a 12-9 score.

Saints at Vikings

The Vikings were scorched by Atlanta tight ends last week, but I don’t know if that bodes well for Juwan Johnson. He doesn’t get a ton of targets and is roughly fifth in the target pecking order for the Saints. The Falcons were missing London, so that was a factor, too.

The Saints defense has not permitted a 100 yard rushing performance this season, and only one wide receiver has exceeded 100 yards in a game.

The best advice for this game is to keep an eye on injury news. Dome games are always intriguing, but the over/under is just a hair above 40 as of this writing.

Texans at Bengals

CJ Stroud went nuclear last week! The Bengals have been hot, but they are in the bottom-third of the NFL in passing defense, and have given up 300+ yard passing performances in 2 of their last 3 games (to Geno Smith and Brock Purdy).

Recency bias might cause pieces from the Texans offense to become chalky, but it is hard to project if they will be good chalk or bad chalk. Stroud has been inconsistent, as has his target distribution. Who would have thought that Nico Collins would fail to reach 100 yard in a game where Stroud passed for almost 500 yards?! Regardless, it is a good idea to have at least some exposure to Stroud/Collins/Dell/Schultz for GPPs.

Here’s an odd stat; despite ranking 24th in pass defense, the Texans have not permitted ONE 100-yard receiving performance this season. At any rate, Ja’Marr Chase is generally matchup-proof, but one wonders if his banged-up back will cause problems. During last week’s postgame interview, Joe Burrow revealed that he wanted to make Tee Higgins a priority, and that he did. Unfortunately, Higgins suffered a hamstring injury in practice yesterday, and his status for Sunday is questionable.

Overall, this game has shootout potential, but several players are injured, so it is best to monitor the news before making any decisions. The Bengals are 7-point favorites as of this writing.

Browns at Ravens

Ah, a good ole AFC North divisional battle. The Ravens are six-point favorites, but Lamar Jackson has laid eggs in each of the last two weeks, and is a boom-or-bust play. We want boom-or-bust plays with high upside for DFS GPPs, so it works. During their last meeting, Jackson threw 2 touchdowns and ran for another 2. It is anyone’s guess who will get the goal line work, as the Ravens have a logjam at running back, which has eaten into Jackson’s opportunities on the ground.

Deshaun Watson did not play in the first meeting this season, so it will be interesting to see how he fares against Baltimore. The Ravens have the second overall pass defense in the NFL, but they have also faced the likes of Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, and Thompson-Robinson. Their defensive DVOA ranking of #2 validates the real-world ranking, but I’d still like to see how they fare against legit passing attacks. Cleveland’s passing game, even with Watson back, doesn’t exactly strike fear into opposing defenses, so I’m fading them this week.

Titans at Bucs

Tampa Bay has permitted five 100-yard+ receiving performances this season. This game looks ugly, but if Will Levis chucks the ball to Hopkins enough, there’s hope.

This game has an O/U below 40 points, so it is hard to imagine any players hitting their ceiling.

49ers at Jaguars

The 49ers have allowed a receiver to exceed 100 yards in each of their last three games (Cooper, Addison, Chase).

On the other side, the Jax Jags have allowed 300 passing yards+ in three of their last four games. I like where this is going. A modest O/U of 44.5 should keep this game from becoming a chalkfest. McCaffery and Etienne will probably draw double-digit ownership, but this game has shootout potential. Jax receivers are CHEAP on Draftkings. At the current moment, all receivers for this game are projected to be under 10% ownership on Draftkings. That could change as we get closer, though.

I’ll be rolling with multiple stacks and bringbacks from this one. Of note, A Purdy-Deebo stack with a Ridley bringback is cheap and has upside. Purdy is only $5700, Deebo is $6200, and Ridley is $5600.

Lions at Chargers

With an O/U of 48.5, this will likely be the most popular game on the slate. Jared Goff doesn’t play as well on the road, but this game has shootout potential. Big-name wide receivers have shredded the Chargers this season – Hill, Jefferson, and Lamb have all torched this team, and St. Brown should continue the trend. The Chargers have a stout run defense, so the Lions will have to rely on the pass to win.

The Chargers’ offense has been middle of the road this season – Herbert injured a finger on October 1st and hasn’t been the same since. This is evidenced by the drop in Keenan Allen’s prodcution – he has not had a 100 yard game since Herbert’s injury. Keep an eye on the news – if Herbert’s finger gets better, we could see an uptick in production. We saw a similar scenario play out earlier this season with Joe Burrow’s calf injury.

In cash games, I’d go with St. Brown. In GPP, I’d take Allen and hope for an upside game.

Falcons at Cardinals

The Falcons QB change combined with London’s injury led to a production boon for the Atl tight ends. Smith and Pitts both had nice games last week. London is set to return, and is playable against the poor Arizona defense. Atlanta running backs are also playable, but the divison of labor is a big question mark.

Do yourself a favor and fade the Cards offense.

Commanders at Seahawks

The inept Patriots offense wasn’t very explosive against a putrid Commanders defense that just lost key pieces during the trade deadline.

There’s a possibility that a Smith/Metcalf stack finally pays off, although Metcalf has been slowed by a hip injury all season long.

On the other side, the Seahawks secondary has played well since getting healthy, and has not permitted a 300-yard passer or 100-yard receiver since week 3.

Metcalf and Lockett are playable from this game, but I’m not buying the Commanders offense just yet.

Giants at Cowboys

I almost always pay down for defense, but I plan on having a lot of exposure to the Dallas D. Even with their price point, it is too hard to pass up on this matchup.

CeeDee Lamb has been on fire, and the Cowboys are favored by a ton. He should do some damage before they take the air out of the ball.

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