Ouch, Week 7 Was a Bust – NFL DFS

Week 7 was my worst DFS main slate of the season. Here is why:

  • I thought that a healthy Aaron Jones would shred an abysmal Denver defense. He didn’t.
  • I was certain that Cooper Kupp would continue operating as a cheat-code against a vulnerable Steelers D. He didn’t.
  • The Colts have been scorched by wide receivers this season and Amari Cooper is a target-hog. What could go wrong? Well, yesterday went wrong.
  • I actually got the Bears defense right! I did not see LV going on the road and doing much against an underrated unit. The advanced metrics don’t support the Bears, but their defense is much better this season.
  • I figured that with Hoyer at QB, the Raiders would have a hard time, and as a result, they would utilize their young tight end as a security blanket. They didn’t.
  • Four of my top five most-owned players were busts yesterday.
  • I also wrongly thought that Sam Howell would play well against a bad NYG defense, and that either Samuel or scary Terry would benefit. That didn’t happen either!

Here is a general overview of the contests that I entered on Draftkings, followed by my top player exposures:

  • NFL 80k Huddle (Single Entry, $5)
  • NFL 50k Huddle (Single Entry, $5)
  • NFL 50k Pylon (Single Entry, $3)
  • NFL 15k Singleback (3-max, $3)
  • NFL $25k Huddle (Single Entry, $5)
  • NFL 1.11M Play-Action (20 max, $3)

I knew that the WAS stacks with Howell and a WR were a risk, but didn’t think that WAS would get held to 7 points, even in a worst-case scenario.

Not even a Mahomes/Pacheco/Rice stack could save my $25k Huddle lineup ($5 entry). I opted for Mahomes for a couple of my single-entry lineups, but even the Chiefs couldn’t save me from the eggs laid by the likes of Kupp and Cooper. Maybe the name Cooper was destined to bust yesterday.

Was My Process Sound?

Sometimes a solid process and good decision making will lead to poor results. Upon further review, I played as if the following things would happen on Sunday:

  • Sam Howell would produce against a bad NYG team – the flaw here is that WAS has a terrible O-line, and they were playing on the road in a divisional game against a NYG team that stymied Josh Allen and Stef Diggs just one week ago.
  • I was all-in on Kupp and Amari Cooper. There was little reason to believe that either player would be slowed down. I’m not happy with the outcome, but choosing both of them wasn’t necessarily a process flaw, although my overall exposure was too high.
  • My expectations for Aaron Jones were too high. Denver is a tough place to play, and I overestimated the odds of him producing a ceiling-type game.
  • Not stacking the Bears D with Foreman – this was stubbornness on my part. Foreman has burned me in the past and I let that bias get in the way of what would have been an excellent RB/DEF stack. I was right about the Bears D, but was not right about much else during week 7.

Playing For Upside

GPPs are all about upside – I got that part right, but expecting ceiling performances from players on average offenses while on the road was a mistake. Yes, week 7 was an ugly main slate, but I had tunnel vision.

Leave a comment