Cash games kept the lights on for me in week 2. I wish that I would’ve had Marvin Harrison Jr. in more of my GPP lineups (I had 12% exposure), but that’s life.
Bears at Colts – O/U 43
Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams likely have better days ahead of them, but neither has played well this season. The Bears had the top run defense in the NFL last year, so it is hard to justify Jonathan Taylor’s $7300 price tag on Draftkings.
If you want to take a risk, D’Andre Swift is only $5600 and gets a shot at Indy’s porous run defense. This is more of a GPP play and is not without risk. The Bears’ O-line has the fifth-lowest yards before contact per attempt, so they aren’t exactly opening up plenty of running lanes.
Giants at Browns – O/U 38
The Browns are 6-point home favorites. In theory, Jerome Ford *should* have a solid stat line – the Giants run defense is a bottom-5 unit so far. I don’t see GPP upside, but Ford is a solid cash game play.
DeShaun Watson and Amari Cooper haven’t lit up the stat sheet so far, but they can’t be this bad all season, right?
As for the Giants, I don’t trust anyone from their squad this weekend, even Malik Nabers. At 15% projected ownership, I am FADING that chalk.
Packers at Titans – O/U 38
The Packers have given up the second-highest explosive run rate through two games, so Tony Pollard is in play. I’d avoid the Titans passing game until they demonstrate some explosiveness.
Josh Jacobs is looking like a top-5 RB this season – fire him up with confidence.
Eagles at Saints – O/U 49.5
Derek Carr appears poised for another solid performance. The Saints have allowed the sixth-lowest pressure rate. The Eagles have the seventh-lowest pressure rate, and they have permitted the most yards per carry. It is too soon to tell if there’s negative correlation between Kamara and Olave/Shaheed, as the Saints have won their first two games in blowout fashion. For GPPs, a Carr/Kamara/Olave or Shaheed stack could pay dividends.
The Saints run-D looks tough in the early going, but Saquon Barkley will have plenty of opportunities to rack up points. Hurts and Smith will be a popular stack given their upside and the game environment. For large-field GPPs, Dotson and Covey are worth playing. I’d avoid them in single-entry GPPs and cash games due to risk. Dallas Goedert is also worth a look.
Chargers at Steelers – O/U 36
Save some time and fade all pieces of this game. Just kidding, you never know when Justin Fields will GO OFF. GPPs only, though.
Texans at Vikings – O/U 46
Stroud is Stroud. Stefon Diggs will likely matchup with Vikings CB Byron Murphy, who has allowed a 105 passer rating so far this season. Nico Collins is currently questionable, so keep an eye on his status as we go into the weekend. Tank Dell will probably breakout at some point, but the when is the question. Dell is absolutely worth playing in large-field GPPs as the ownership will go to Collins and Diggs.
Mixon and Pierce are both banged up, and their statuses are up in the air for this weekend. Cam Akers could get some work.
Sam Darnold has played well, but the Vikings are protecting him – he has yet to exceed 30 pass attempts, but given the game scripts for weeks 1 and 2, he hasn’t had a reason to air it out. That could change this weekend, at only$5500 on Draftkings, he’s a worthy play in GPPs and cash games.
The Vikings are protecting Aaron Jones, as he has 30 touches compared to Ty Chandler’s 21. The Vikings run game is a DFS fade this weekend.
Justin Jefferson said that he feels “great” despite a bruised quad. Play him!
Broncos at Bucs – O/U 41
The Bucs are 6-point favorites over Denver. Mayfield only threw 19 passes last week in a tight game versus Detroit, and that trend could continue if the Bucs take an early lead. Rachaad White is currently banged-up – if he misses, Bucky Irving will get a lot of work, and at $5100 (DK), he’s worth looking at.
Fade the Broncos offense until they demonstrate some proficiency.
Panthers at Raiders – O/U 40
Yes, the Panthers are bad, but this game presents an interesting opportunity in large-field GPPs. On Draftkings, Andy Dalton is only $4800. Dionte Johnson is $4900, and Adam Thielen is $5000. A Panthers stack is a high-risk move, but it allows you to fit more marquee players into your lineup.
Minshew, Adams, and Bowers are all playable versus the Panthers. After two tough weeks on the road against the Chargers and Ravens, the Panthers are a refreshing change of pace.
Dolphins at Seahawks – O/U 42
This line started at a robust 49, but is all the way down to 42. I don’t see the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins lighting up the scoreboard on a long road trip to Seattle. Raheem Mostert is unlikely to play, which means Achane will get the bulk of the carries, and he’s a threat to catch passes out of the backfield. Skylar Thompson will probably utilize his checkdown option frequently, meaning plenty of work for Achane. He’s a worthy play in all formats.
Fading Tyreek Hill is always dangerous, but I’m spending elsewhere given the QB situation in Miami.
DK Metcalf put up a vintage performance last week on the road in New England. Smith-Njigba had a whopping 16 targets. Charbonnet will get the carries. I like the latter two for cash games given volume, and Metcalf is a great GPP play.
Lions at Cardinals – O/U 51.5
You can’t go wrong with pieces from this game. Inexplicably, Jameson Williams is only projected at 8% ownership. He’s second in the NFL in receiving yards and has as much upside as anyone. St. Brown is also projected at around 8%. Murray and McBride will be a popular stack, as both are projected at above 10% ownership so far. QB is usually more spread out, so 10% is high.
Conner is coming in a 7%, Gibbs at 11% ownership. Sam LaPorta is coming in at under 2%.
And the real surprise – Marvin Harrison Jr is at 3% projected ownership at the time of this writing.
Vegas thinks this game will shootout. There’s no need to take a deep-dive into the statistics – you want players from this game. Period. Figure out creative ways to work them in.
49ers at Rams – O/U 43.5
Vegas had this game as a shootout earlier in the week, but injuries on both sides have taken the O/U from 49 down to 43.5.
Don’ worry about Brandon Aiyuk’s 14% target share – Deebo is injured, and the targets have to go somewhere. George Kittle will be leaned upon heavily too. And don’t forget Mason – he is a weekly must-start until further notice. UPDATE: Kittle is doubtful for week 3.
DeMarcus Robinson currently ranks 16th in the NFL in route win rate – with Puka and Cupp out, Robinson is the logical play. Unfortunately, the Rams offensive line hasn’t played well, and Stafford will be under duress. The Rams offense is beyond banged up. It’s hard to even suggest Kyren this week, but he is a volume-based play.
Ravens at Cowboys – O/U 48
I’ll keep this short. Jackson is always worth playing. Elliot has struggled. The Dallas run-game is a mess.
CeeDee should shine, and King Henry could smash – the Ravens’ offensive line has the sixth-best yards before contact per attempt, while Dallas has the lowest stuff rate in the NFL.
King Henry doesn’t break as many slates as he used to, but he has a chance this weekend.