The Draftkings late swap feature saved my week three lineups. To try to gain ground for failing lineups, I faded Mason and Aiyuk in favor of Henry and Jameson Williams. Fortunately, Henry’s 30 point outburst was enough to save my cash game entries. I barely cashed, but I was able to break even. Jameson Williams was a busy, but it didn’t matter. Had I kept Mason and Aiyuk, I would not have cashed in said contests. Anyway, week 4 is upon us!
Steelers at Colts, O/U 40
The Steelers defense is ON FIRE right now. The line started off at 44 and has moved down to 40. Let’s make this simple – fade all Colts this week.
As for the Steelers, Justin Fields is in play for GPPs. Yes, he’s ranked 24th in yards per attempt, and yes, the Steelers are a bottom-five offense, but Fields is a dual-threat QB. We’ve seen him break slates in the past, and Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are both banged up (keep an eye on this). Due to the injuries, Fields will either run or pass more, which bodes well for fantasy.
George Pickens ranks 10th in the NFL in separation. He’s due for some big plays, and a Fields/Pickens stack is certainly in play for GPPs.
Vikings at Packers – O/U 43.5
Will Jordan Love play well in his first game back? He did well against the blitz last year, but the Vikings defense means business. I’m leaning towards fading most Packers this week.
As for the Vikings, Sam Darnold is off to a great start, but this isn’t the first time he’s shown flashes early in a season. Green Bay has allowed the fifth most passing touchdowns in the NFL this year, but they also lead the NFL with 7 interceptions. They’ve also added 11 sacks and 2 forced fumbles, which is why this Vikings blog is calling the game “a heavyweight defensive battle”.
Here are some things to consider for this game:
- Justin Jefferson will have single-digit Draftkings ownership, and can break a slate on any given week
- Aaron Jones has played well, and the Packers, despite a solid defense, have given up the third-highest explosive run rate in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor ran for over 100 yards on only 12 carries versus the pack in week 2
As always, projecting game flow/game environment/game script should guide our decisions. Out of all the possible outcomes, a defensive battle is more likely than a high-scoring affair. I wouldn’t play anyone from this game in cash games, but Darnold/Jones/Jefferson are all viable GPP pieces.
Jaguars at Texans – O/U 44.5
In an alternate universe somewhere, this game has an over/under of 60. Unfortunately, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t proven to be a generational talent and C.J. Stroud has yet to exceed 300 passing yards this season.
Despite a slow start, Christian Kirk ranks 25th in separation out of over 100 receivers. He’s burned me a few times this season as a value-play, but he had 10 targets last week. Still, he’s more likely to flop than to boom.
On paper, there are a lot of fades in this game, but my gut tells me that it could shoot out. Having said that, I wouldn’t play any Jax/Hou players in cash games, but I would at least have some exposure in GPPs.
The Jaguars are the only defense to use man coverage over 50% of the time this season. Guess what? Nico Collins is the best WR vs. man so far. Does it mean he’ll have an upside game? There’s enough of a chance to have exposure in GPPs. My only pause is the lackluster performance of the HOU offense so far.
Saints at Falcons – O/U 41
Kamara and Robinson are cash game plays because of their floors. Keep an eye on Kamara and Olave as they are both banged-up.
The Saints are of three teams that have held each opponent under twenty points so far. The Falcons, while not as daunting, held both the Eagles and Chiefs to 22 points apiece.
With a low over/under, multiple injuries, and tough defenses in a divisional game, there’s not a lot to love here DFS-wise.
Rams at Bears – O/U 40.5
The over/under opened at 47 and has plummeted all the way down to 40.5. Wow.
On the surface, there’s not a lot to love about this game. The over/under is low, both offenses have underperformed, and the injury list is growing.
But check this out – the Rams are the worst in the league against the deep ball (150+ passer rating allowed, 5 TD’s). Rome Odunze is a little banged up, but should play on Sunday. Inexplicably, his ownership % is projected at under 5%. What?! Yes, Keenan Allen will return, but Odunze leads the team in deep targets, and will certainly get a few chances against this defense.
Bears stacks are in play for GPPs – they are too risky for cash games, but I would tinker with Williams and that receiving corps. It’s hard to say if Moore, Allen, or Odunze will lead the way, but they are solid large-field GPP selections. Fade the running game, as this o-line has been unable to open lanes for Swift, and Johnson likely will not fare much better.
I don’t love the Rams in this spot – Kyren Williams is Kyren Williams, but outside of him, there’s not much to like for cash games or GPPs.
Eagles at Buccaneers – O/U 43
With both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith likely OUT, the Eagles condensed offense will run through Barkley and Goedert. Hurts/Barkley/Goedert stacks work for both cash games and GPPs.
The Eagles defense is tough, but not impossible. One of either Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should have a solid game, but it is a coin toss. I’d fade those TB RBs this week.
Bengals at Panthers – O/U 47.5
The Carolina defense is in the bottom-10 in yards per attempted permitted and passing touchdowns permitted. Burrow and Chase are a great stack in all formats. Higgins’ line wasn’t great last week but the targets and air yards were there. He’s in play for GPPs.
Andy Dalton is only $5300 on Draftkings, and with an O/U approaching 50, he’s in play for GPPs. Dionte Johnson will be mega-chalk at over 25% projected ownership, but this looks like good chalk. Xavier Legette should benefit from Adam Thielen’s absence and is projected at below 1% ownership. He’s a GPP play, as is Jonathan Mingo at $3300.
I’m not a huge Zack Moss fan, and Chuba Hubbard has burned me in the past. Shame on me for biases, but I am fading both running games.
If you’re looking for a dart-throw at tight end, Tommy Tremble is below $3000. Not bad for a starter, and at his price, you’re hoping for a touchdown to get some ROI.
Broncos at Jets – O/U 39.5
Breece Hall is a perfect cash game back – if he doesn’t get point running, he’ll get them receiving. The floor is undeniable. Unfortunately, Braelon Allen is playing well enough to limit Hall’s upside. He had 11 carries last week and three receptions. I really don’t like many pieces from this game outside of Hall. We want upside for those GPPs, and this game could easily be a field goal fest.
Commanders at Cardinals, O/U 49
Wilson and Dortch are both projected at 15% ownership, while Harrison is around 11%. Arizona stacks are in play.
Arizona has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to outside receivers, so Scary Terry McLaurin is absolutely in play. His ownership projection is around 10%. At $5800, you could easily correlate him with Harrison Jr.
Murray and Daniels are obvious plays.
James Conner should rebound this week as a home favorite. Brian Robinson on the other hand, is harder to project, but Austin Ekeler will be out due to a concussion. Both are solid cash game options.
The Cardinals have a good run defense, but they did allow David Montgomery to run for over 100 yards and a TD recently, so there’s that.
Patriots at 49ers – O/U 41
The 49ers are a ten-point home favorite. Mason is an obvious start in this position in all formats.
Deebo Samuel is poised to return, which raises a ton of question marks – how will the targets be distributed amongst Samuel, Aiyuk, Jennings, and Kittle? Aiyuk will likely draw coverage from Christian Gonzalez, so fade him. Deebo might be limited, and the game could be a blowout, so fade him, too. Jennings might not get enough volume, so he’s a possible fade. There aren’t many good fantasy tight ends out there, so Kittle is worth playing in all formats.
One interesting note – the 49ers have allowed the MOST receiving yards to slot receivers this season. This means that DeMario Douglas could pop – the Patriots will likely be playing from behind, which would bode well for Douglas. He’s the only piece I’m considering from the Patriots for DFS. At 1.3% ownership, he’s an EXCELLENT GPP pivot from chalkier options.
Browns at Raiders – O/U 36.5
A 36.5 over/under? This one could be a clunker.
Maybe play Amari Cooper for the volume. Same with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. The GPP-upside isn’t there for this game, and the cash game floor isn’t either. Lots of fades.
Chiefs at Chargers – O/U 41
This game opened at a whopping 49, and dropped all the way down to a combined total of 41. Mahomes and Rice are always in play, but outside of those two, this game is surprisingly a clunker. In years past, that 49 O/U would have stuck.