Cash games saved me in week 4, yet again. This is becoming a trend! I had too many shares of Najee Harris and DeMario Douglas, but fortunately, I had Nico Collins and/or Marvin Harrison Jr. in most of my lineups.
At any rate, week 5 is a smaller slate than usual, with only 10 games.
Browns at Commanders – O/U 44.5
The Commanders just dismantled the Cardinals in what was expected to be a competitive game. The range of outcomes for this one is all over the place. Consider the following:
- The Browns defense is solid, but has a reputation for not playing as well on the road
- The Browns offense has yet to demonstrate any kind of potency
- The Commanders defense, despite last weak, is beatable
This game is a fade – it could easily become a field goal fest. I don’t like a rookie QB versus the Browns defense, and I certainly don’t trust the Browns offense.
Ravens at Bengals – O/U 50.5
The Ravens stymied Josh Allen last week but were smoked by Dak Prescott two weeks ago. The range of outcomes for this game are plentiful – it could be a classic AFC North battle, it could shootout, or it could be somewhere in between.
The Bengals have scored 30+ points in consecutive games against suspect defenses (CAR & WAS). Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are the plays in this one. Their running game is becoming a timeshare.
For the Ravens, all roads lead through Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Likely have all flopped in recent weeks, but they are speculative, high risk GPP plays. If you think that this game will shootout, get these guys in a few of your lineups. Likely has demonstrated GPP-caliber upside once this season, so he has it in him. Flowers has not, be he has the talent. Bateman is a dart throw. GPPs are about upside, and we have to take a close look at all possible plays with an over/under above fifty.
Burrow, Chase, Jackson, and Henry are the only cash game plays from this game.
Panthers at Bears – O/U 41
Ick, this one looks rough. The Bears have been solid against the run since the beginning of last season. Hubbard should get looks through the air though, as he has 13 receptions over the last three weeks. I’m fading him nonetheless.
Dionte Johnson’s volume puts him in play in all formats – a 32% target share and almost 60% share of air yards with Dalton under center mean that he is THE WR1 in Carolina, for what it’s worth.
I don’t trust the Bears offense. A cheap but risky stack for this week is Williams and either Odunze or Allen. It is beyond wild to see Keenan Allen at $5800 on Draftkings, but here we are. The Panthers are a bottom-five defense in fantasy points allowed through the air, but can Williams take advantage?
Cole Kmet is second in red zone targets for the Bears, so he is definitely in play for large-field GPPs.
Lastly, Swift was a major surprise last week. The Panthers have permitted the four-most rushing yards per game, so firing up Swift again is an option.
Bills at Texans O/U 48
The Bills have been a boom-or-bust team this season. Over the last three weeks, they’ve beaten Miami 31-10, they’ve beaten Jax 47-10, and they’ve lost to Baltimore 35-10.
Both the Bills and Texans are top 10 defenses versus the pass this season.
There are lots of stats to dive into, but the real question is, what will the game environment look like? One thing to consider is that Josh Allen elevates his play – he’s done the following against top-5 pass defenses since 2020:
- 9-1 record
- 260 passing yards per game
- 27 passing TD’s, 5 interceptions, 106 rating
Not too shabby. Unfortunately, he spreads the ball around, which isn’t great for fantasy purposes. The Bills rank 21st in the NFL in WR target share at 57%. That’s a lot of targets for the RB and TE positions. Allen is a play in all formats, but his supporting cast, not so much.
In contrast, we know that Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs WILL get targeted a lot, so Stroud stacks are in play for GPPs. Buffalo’s run defense is suspect, as they’ve surrendered a league worst 5.7 yards per carry. Baltimore was able to exploit that last week, but Joe Mixon is currently questionable for Sunday. If it’s Akers, he might be worth playing, but Houston ranks 28th in the NFL in run block win rate (RBWR). This is validated by their 20th overall ranking in yards per carry.
Overall, this game could boom or bust. I’d play pieces from each side in GPPs, but not in cash games.
Colts at Jaguars – O/U 46
Richardson, Taylor, Etienne, Bixby, and Engram are all questionable.
The Colts pass defense is bottom-10 in most categories, but Trevor Lawrence has not met or exceeded 15 Draftkings points yet this season. Is he due? Maybe. I’m not buying, but volume puts Christian Kirk in play this weekend. He’s been targeted 22 times combined over the last two weeks, and $5700 on DK, there’s profit potential. Brian Thomas is also in play at $5900 – he broke out last week, and could keep the train rolling against Indy.
Michael Pittman has never exceeded 20 Draftkings points in a single game. Keep an eye on the injury report, as there could be value depends on who plays for the Colts.
Dolphins at Patriots – O/U 36.5
This game line has slipped all the way down to 36.5. I’m fading it into oblivion.
Cardinals at 49ers – O/U 50
The 49ers are 9-point favorites over a Cardinals team that was just blown out by the Commanders. While the output hasn’t been great for the Cardinals, the talent is in place for lots of offensive production. That upside is capped a bit by a solid 49ers defense, but you should roster Murray and Harrison Jr. in some of your large-field GPPs in the event that this game shoots out.
While a shootout is a possible outcome, Vegas thinks the 49ers will dominate. The Cardinals have already permitted eight rushing touchdowns, so Jordan Mason will once again have a chance to score 20+ fantasy points.
Brock Purdy is definitely in play for both GPPs and cash games. Unfortunately, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle are all a guessing game. Who will get the targets? For DFS, I like condensed, predictable offenses. There’s too much guessing here, so I’m fading 49ers pass catchers.
Raiders at Broncos – O/U 36
Another BRUTAL combined total. Fade this game. All of it.
Packers at Rams – O/U 48.5
This game is expected to be close, with the Packers favored by three.
The Rams secondary is weak, and Green Bay should be able to exploit it. Love, Wicks, and Reed are solid plays in all formats. Against perimeter receivers, the Rams have allowed the second most receiving yards in the NFL.
Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell are solid GPP plays, but I would avoid them in cash games. If the game shoots out, one of them should pop, but its anyone’s guess as to which one. Colby Parkinson has been a popular fantasy play due to route participation, but he has not cracked double-digit fantasy points yet this season.
Tucker Kraft will be a popular play due to recency bias, but at $3500, why not? He had nine targets last week and 18 Draftkings points. Not bad.
Giants at Seahawks – O/U 42.5
The Seahawks are favored by seven. The Giants’ offense is banged up – Nabers and Singletary have been ruled out for Sunday. Robinson and Slayton are large-field GPP plays. I don’t know what to expect from Tyrone Tracy Jr., but he’ll get some work with Singletary out.
Geno Smith has played well recently, and he’s a solid play in all formats along with DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker Jr.