I improved my cash game record to 13-2 in week 6 by cashing out in all three cash game contests on Draftkings. I mostly chased chalk, yet it was the under 5% owned Justin Fields that led the way for my cash game lineup (I used the same lineup in all three contests).
Unfortunately, my GPP entries did not fare as well, but there’s always week 7.
Titans at Bills – O/U 41
The Bills are almost TEN-point favorites in this one, and for good reason; the Titans haven’t played well this season. The Titans’ passing game is nonexistent. They might be able to run on Buffalo’s bad run defense (bottom-3 in YPC surrendered), but it is hard to play Tony Pollard as a 10-point road underdog.
The Titans have a strong defense, and the Bills offense hasn’t been great. Amari Cooper will help, but it might take a few games to get him up to speed.
Josh Allen generally plays well against solid defensive units, so he’s in play, but I don’t love this game for GPP purposes.
Lions at Vikings – O/U 50.5
The Vikings love to blitz, and Jared Goff ranks first in yards per attempt when blitzed. Jordan Love also fares well versus the blitz, and he torched the Vikings a few weeks ago with almost 400 yards passing and four TD’s. In GPPs, I would absolutely stack Goff and Jameson Williams, as Williams has 41% of the Lions’ air yards when blitzed. As always, Amon-Ra St. Brown is playable in all formats.
The Viking run D is a top unit in virtually every metric, so I’m fading the Lions running game.
The Lions defense has been solid – they recently dismantled the Cowboys and have held quarterbacks to the third-lowest passer rating in the NFL. Sam Darnold will have his work cut out for him. The Vikings rank 8th in the NFL in pass block win rate, so they should keep Darnold upright. Here’s the problem – I am biased against Darnold and we have watched him turn into a pumpkin before after a strong start to a season. Will it happen again?
Justin Jefferson is always a GPP play, and if this game shoots out, he will “eat” as the kids say. A Goff/Williams stack with a Jefferson bringback makes a ton of sense in terms of upside and correlation.
Sam LaPorta doesn’t look healthy. I don’t know that he’s a fade, but proceed with caution.
If Aaron Jones doesn’t play, Ty Chandler with offer cheap volume, but he hasn’t done much this season.
Eagles at Giants – O/U 42.5
The Giants have given up 5.2 yard per carry so far, third worst in the NFL. Oddly, they rank in the top ten in run stop win rate. It gets even stranger – last week, Joe Burrow led the Bengals in rushing yards versus the Giants thanks to a 47-yard touchdown run. The week before that, Geno Smith ran for 72 yards on four carries versus the Giants. Walker only rushed for 19 yards on five carries. So, what does this tell us?
Firstly, the YPC numbers versus the Giants might be artificially inflated due to the performances over the last two weeks. Having said that, Brian Robinson shredded this unit for 17/133 a few weeks ago. A boom revenge game is possible for Barkley, but it is also possible that Jalen Hurts cuts into his upside on the ground. Both are in play for GPPs. Barkley is usually in play for cash games, but last week showed us that nothing is a guarantee.
AJ Brown returned with a vengeance last week and is playable in all formats. I’d reserve Smith for GPPs. Target-monster Malik Nabers will return for the Giants and is playable in all formats.
Bengals at Browns – O/U 41.5
The Bungles will battle the Brownies in a classic AFC North matchup. The Browns have permitted 100-yard WR1 performances in consecutive weeks (McLaurin and AJ Brown), and this will likely continue with Ja’Marr Chase.
Joe Burrow has a 1-5 career record vs. the Browns and Myles Garrett has sacked Joe Burrow eight times with sixteen hits during his career and will have his sights set on him this Sunday.
This is not a great game for DFS as it could end up being a defensive battle. Having said that, this is an opportunity to cash-in on random variance in large-field GPPs. In the off chance that Watson wakes up, there’s an opportunity for a CHEAP stack. Watson is $4900 on DK and Jeudy is $4800. Elijah Moore is only $3200. The Cleveland passing game has been awful, so expect this to fail, but remember, no risk-it, no biscuit.
Texans at Packers – O/U 48
Jordan Love is a top-3 QB when utilizing play action passes and the Texans are a bottom-3 unit when defending the play action. Overall, the Texans are third in the NFL in yards per attempt permitted. The Texans defense ranks 4th overall in pass rush win rate, so this unit means business.
The best-case scenario from a DFS perspective is a competitive, close, back and forth game. This will allow for plenty of volume both ways – mix and match stacks for GPPs – Stroud, Diggs, Dell, Love, Reed, Watson, and possibly Doubs are all in play.
Seahawks at Falcons – O/U 51
Seattle will be missing two cornerbacks due to injury. Drake London is playable in all formats due to upside and volume. Seattle’s run defense is suspect – they are a bottom-5 unit in yards per carry given up. Bijan Robinson broke out last week, but the fantasy points were dependent on two touchdowns. If this game shoots out, a Cousins/Robinson/London stack could pop.
The Falcons are the second worst defensive unit in terms of DVOA-adjusted performance versus WR1’s. This bodes well for Metcalf, although only one receiver has exceeded 100 yards versus the Hawks so far. Again, if you build a lineup around the game shooting out, Metcalf makes sense.
Dolphins at Colts – O/U 43.5
I’d avoid most players from this matchup for cash games, but Achane and Hill should be in play for GPPs. Hill is only projected to garner 1% ownership – his upside on any given week is undeniable. If Huntley can get him the ball, watch out.
As for Indy, Sermon is a volume-based play. Anthony Richardson will return, and although he has struggled this season, his upside is real.
We all know Achane’s upside, but who will get the carries? The Colts have surrendered the most rushing yards in the NFL this season. Again, this is more of a boom/bust GPP play.
Raiders at Rams – O/U 43.5
I’m going to keep this simple. The Raiders have a bottom-5 run defense. Kyren Williams should be played in all formats.
With Jakobi Meyers out, fire up Brock Bowers in all formats.
Outside of that, this game stinks from a DFS perspective.
Panthers at Commanders – O/U 51.5
The Commanders are a bottom-5 unit in passing TD’s allowed and yards per attempt allowed. Andy Dalton is in play for cash and GPPs. Dionte is banged up, but has been a target hog. Chuba Hubbard has an excellent floor – he’s scored double-digit fantasy points every week since week two.
The Commanders have given up the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends, so Sanders is in play if Tremble doesn’t play.
Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin are the obvious plays for the Commanders. Noah Brown is another play, as he had almost 10 points last week, and looks to increase his target share.
Chiefs at 49ers – O/U 47
The combined total looks appealing, but I don’t like many pieces from this game for GPP purposes. Juju, Hunt, and Kelce are solid cash game plays. For the 49ers, Mason has been banged up. As we know, Purdy spreads the ball around, so it is hard to project receiver performance.
George Kittle is a solid play in all formats.