We are finally back to a somewhat full slate this week! Those ten game slates are hit or miss.
Ravens at Browns – O/U 44.5
The Ravens are massive road favorites. While it is hard to suggest fading Derrick Henry, no running back has exceeding 70 yards versus the Browns this season. Cleveland ranks #1 in the NFL in run stop win rate, and the numbers back it up.
While I would avoid this game for cash games and single-entry contests, it is an intriguing one for large-field GPPs. The Ravens can’t defend the pass – they are last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. The X-factor is Jameis Winston – he’s put up big numbers at times in the past, but he’s a backup for a reason. He won’t have many weapons, either. The Browns will almost assuredly be playing from behind, so the volume will be there.
This could be a classic AFC North defensive battle, but it could also be a sneaky shootout. This is all contingent upon Winston’s ability to beat the Ravens’ pass defense. Stacking Browns is a cheap option this week, and allows you flexibility elsewhere to roster studs.
I must reiterate that this is a high-risk move, but to win GPPs, you have to take risks.
As always, Lamar Jackson is a weekly play in all formats, so add him to your player pool. Flowers and Bateman are solid stacking partners, and Cleveland’s pass defense is a ‘middle of the road’ unit. The Browns have actually allowed the fourth most yards on deep passes this season, so the deep ball is a vulnerability.
Again, this one has sneaky shootout potential!
Colts at Texans – O/U 45.5
After consecutive weeks in which the Colts faced Will Levis and Tyler Huntley, they might be in for a rude awakening. This unit has surrendered 300-yard passing days to both Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence, and ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per attempt surrendered.
Given that the Texans could win this one by double digits, the top play in all formats is Joe Mixon. The Colts rank 31st in rushing yards per game surrendered. Ouch. Additionally, Mixon torched this unit in week 1. The Colts also surrender plenty of production to tight ends, but Dalton Schultz has not reached ten fantasy points in a single game this season.
Packers at Jaguars – O/U 49.5
There are so many solid plays in this game. Tank Bigsby is only $6300 on Draftkings and is projected at below 5% ownership. Given the volume, he’s a solid play in all formats. Green Bay’s run defense isn’t awful anymore. Regardless, the Packers have allowed four 100-yard+ games to running backs this season.
Brian Thomas looks like the real deal, but only one receiver has hit the 100-yard mark versus Green Bay this season. He’s a GPP play in the event that this game shoots out, but I’m passing in cash games and single-entry contests.
The Green Bay offense might pop against the Jaguars, but here’s the problem – Love spreads the ball around quite a bit. Reed is his top target, but he’s a boom or bust option, and is best utilized in GPPs. Tucker Kraft is a solid tight end, but again, the volume isn’t always there.
Titans at Lions – O/U 45
The Titans defense has permitted the second-fewest passing yards per game and eighth-fewest fantasy points to rushing.
Tony Pollard has been a bright spot for the Titans this season and is playable in cash games.
I’m fading this entire game – I just don’t see the floor for cash games nor do I see the ceiling for GPPs.
Falcons at Buccaneers – O/U 46
Bijan Robinson and Drake London are playable in all formats. Kyle Pitts is creeping into the cash game conversation, having scored double-digit fantasy points in consecutive weeks. Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins has only exceeded 20 fantasy points ONCE this season, and it was against the Bucs.
Cade Otton is playable in all formats due to low pricing and solid volume. Unfortunately, the Bucs offense will be a guessing game this week. There could be excellent value, but trying to decode this offense is like a puzzle. They utilize three running backs and their wide receiver volume distribution is TBD without Evans and Godwin. Palmer, McMillan, and Shepard are all cheap, playable options in GPPs.
Darnell Mooney should be a part of your player pool for GPPs – he’s a boom or bust option, and boomed vs TB a few weeks ago.
Jets at Patriots – O/U 41
Hunter Henry is emerging as a possible TE1. He’s playable in all formats due to volume alone. The Jets aren’t great against slot receivers (ninth-highest PPR points per target), so DeMario Douglas is playable. While the Jets run defense isn’t scary, I’m not confident in the Patriots o-line, as they rank 31st in run block win rate.
Everyone is playing Breece Hall this week, but I am fading the Jets offense.
Eagles at Bengals – O/U 48
This game is a potential shootout. Obvious plays in all formats include Hurts, Burrow, Chase, AJ Brown, and Barkley. Take the time to make a few practice lineups with pieces from this game. Mix and match. Also watch out for Higgins injury news. Dallas Goedert will be out.
Cardinals at Dolphins – O/U 46
In theory, this game should be a high-scoring shootout. Unfortunately, the Cardinals have underperformed offensively, and Tua is returning from a concussion. How he performs will be a giant question mark. I’d add Harrison and Hill to your GPP player pools, but not with a ton of exposure.
Miami ranks 19th in yards per carry allowed and 30th in rushing touchdowns per game allowed, but it is hard to play an RB that is a road dog traveling across the country. He’s playable, but there’s a wide range out outcomes.
Saints at Chargers – O/U 40.5
This game will be a slog and I am fading it.
Bills at Seahawks – O/U 47
With DK Metcalf out, Tyler Lockett and Smith-Njigba get a bump. I expect both teams to spread the ball around, making it hard to project volume. Not ideal for DFS. Josh Allen is always playable, and Geno Smith has been solid, so there’s that.
Chiefs at Raiders – O/U 41.5
The Chiefs are almost 10-point favorites on the road. Hunt/Kelce/Bowers are playable in all formats, but the rest is a guessing game. One would think that Worthy will pop eventually, but it hasn’t happened yet. The target distribution will be anyone’s guess after the acquisition of Hopkins. Again, this could be a slog.
Panthers at Broncos – 41.5
Javonte Williams finally broke out last week with 88 yards and two touchdowns. Play Nix and Williams, fade the rest. This game looks dreadful.
Bears at Commanders – O/U 43.5
Caleb Williams in on a roll and the Commanders have surrendered the third-highest passer rating in the NFL this season. Swift is also on a roll, and the Commanders are 27th in the NFL in yards per carry permitted. One would think that DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet are solid plays, and they are, but they limit each other’s upside. Williams spreads the ball around.
Jayden Daniels is a game time decision. Terry McLaurin should be playable due to volume. Outside of that, the Bears defense is solid and I would fade other pieces from Washington.