Commanders at Giants – O/U 43
Quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels is injured – be sure to monitor his status as Sunday approaches. Marcus Mariota is a nice, cheap option at $5k on Draftkings if he is the starter.
Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since week five. He’s worth a GPP flyer given the matchup but temper your expectations.
Running backs: Commanders are 29th in the NFL in YPC surrendered, 27th in run stop win rate, and have given up four performances of 95 rushing yards or more. Tracy gashed the Steelers on MNF but is currently in the league’s concussion protocol. If he doesn’t play, Devin Singletary is a worthy play in cash games and single-entry GPPs. He doesn’t have the large-field GPP upside, but he is a strong bet for 15 fantasy points or so.
The Giants’ run defense is awful. They are LAST in the NFL in YPC surrendered and have allowed four RB performances of 94 yards or more. Brian Robinson Jr ran all over this unit earlier in the season (133 yards) and could do so again. The Giants actually have a top-5 red zone defense, so Robinson’s upside could be capped. He’s an excellent cash game play but doesn’t have GPP upside.
Wide receivers: The Commanders rank 24th in the NFL in fantasy PPG allowed to wide receivers. Malik Nabers scorched this unit back in week two and is a solid play in all formats. Daniel Jones caps the upside of Wan’dale Robinson and Darius Slayton, although either one works as a GPP flier.
The Giants rank 18th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Terry McLaurin will get the volume, and Noah Brown has been targeted 15 times over the last three games. At $4000 on Draftkings, he offers solid value for GPPs. McLaurin was held in check by the Giants earlier this season, but he is the undisputed WR1 in Washington.
Tight ends:
Defense:
Chargers at Browns – O/U 42.5
Quarterbacks: Both teams play the pass well. Given the low combined total, fade QB’s for this one.
Running backs: The Chargers rank 25th in YPC surrendered but have only permitted ONE 100-yard+ rushing performance. This is probably due to game flow. The Browns fed Nick Chubb 16 carries last week, so he could hit 20+ carries soon. This feels like more of a GPP play due to the risk – this is only his third game back from the injury.
The Browns rank 18th in YPC surrendered but have not permitted a single 100-yard performance. This is a great week to fade the Charger running attack.
Wide receivers: This isn’t a great game for DFS – the cash game floors aren’t there, nor is the GPP upside. Fade the receivers.
Dolphins at Bills – O/U 49.5
Quarterbacks: Both QB’s are in play for GPPs due to the shootout potential for this game. Allen is the better cash game option.
Running backs: Miami ranks 13th in the NFL in YPC surrendered. NO RB’s have exceeded 100 rushing yards against this unit! That’s impressive, but the Fins have surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns, so that put James Cook in play – he’s scored 10 or more fantasy points in 5/7 games, and the two that he didn’t were against TEN and BAL, two stout run D units. He’s playable in all formats.
The Bills are 27th in the NFL in YPC surrendered but only two RB’s have exceeded 100 yards versus this unit. It is probably due to game flow as the Bills have been blowing out teams in 2024. They have won four games by 21 points or more, including a 31-10 win over Miami during week two. Achane is the quintessential GPP running back, as he is a big play waiting to happen. He put up almost 30 Draftkings points during week two versus the Bills, and his involvement in the passing game keeps him in play regardless of game flow.
I’m not quite ready to play him in cash games due to his boom/bust nature.
Wide receivers: Perimeter wide receivers don’t fare well versus MIA – they’ve permitted the fourth fewest fantasy points to outside receivers this season. They are more generous to slot pass catchers, so Khalil Shakir is the play for this one.
The Bills have stymied wide receivers – they’ve allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Tyreek Hill is always a threat to break a slate, but this seems unlikely versus Buffalo.
Cowboys at Falcons – O/U 52
Quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins is a GPP play given the combined total and his boom/bust tendency this season. The Cowboys have allowed the highest yards per attempt in the NFL, so he is positioned well.
Dak Prescott has only finished one game with single digit fantasy points. He’s playable in all formats given the combined total. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns so far this season, so a ceiling-game is possible.
Running backs: Fade the Cowboys running attack. They are last in the NFL in rushing yards per game.
The Dallas run defense has permitted four performances of 80 rushing yards or more, with a combined eight rushing touchdowns permitted in those contents. This unit ranks 26th in the NFL in YPC surrendered, so Bijan Robinson will have a chance at a boom this weekend. Fire him up in all formats.
Wide receivers: CeeDee Lamb and Drake London are plays in all formats – they get a ton of volume and with a combined total of over 50, either or both could pop. Tolbert is a GPP play for Dallas, but Prescott likes to spread the ball around a lot. Darnell Mooney is a GPP play for Atlanta – if the game shoots out as Vegas predicts, he could be in line for a ceiling game.
Saints at Panthers – O/U 43.5
Quarterbacks: Bryce Young is a tempting start at just $4400 on Draftkings. He played competently on the road against a stout Denver defense last week. I played Mason Rudolph in both cash games and GPPs last week, and the flexibility helped tremendously. I bucked the conventional wisdom as far as cash strategy, but it doesn’t take much for a player to exceed their price tag at $4400.
Derek Carr should play, but is he healthy? I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
Running backs: Carolina ranks 17th in the NFL in YPC allowed and LAST in the NFL in rushing touchdowns permitted. Unfortunately, the Alvin Kamara’s injury status is uncertain. Monitor this one as Sunday approaches.
The Saints have permitted five RB’s to rush for 80 yards or more. They are 31st in YPC allowed and 24th in rushing TD’s allowed per game. Chuba Hubbard has scored 10 or more fantasy points in 6/8 games, making him an excellent choice for cash games. He was held to a 6/14 rushing line versus the Saints all the way back in week one during a 47-10 loss – The Saints were on fire to start the season, but injuries and poor play have led to a 2-6 record so far.
Wide receivers: Chris Olave will have Derek Carr back, and he’s cheap on Draftkings. He’s not an ideal cash game play, but he plays well in GPPs.
The Saints rank 24th in FPPG surrendered to WR’s, so Jalen Coker is in play. He’s cheap enough to take a risk on in cash games and is a fine GPP play. Legette is questionable – keep an eye on his status before kickoff.
Patriots at Titans – O/U 38
Quarterbacks: The Titans have not named a starting QB yet. Rudolph scored almost 20 fantasy points last week. He’s not great, but he’s good enough at $4600. Levis is a fade if he plays.
Drake Maye has shown promise, but a road game against a stout Titans defense is a tall task. Look elsewhere.
Running backs: The Titans run defense ranks 10th in the NFL in YPC permitted. This unit has allowed ONE 100-yard+ rushing performance so far. Rhamondre Stevenson is playable due to volume and TD upside, but I don’t like the idea of playing road underdog RB’s in games with low combined totals. The Patriot o-line isn’t the best, either.
Six RB’s have rushed for 80 or more yards versus the Pats this season. They’re 16th in YPC permitted and 24th in rushing TD’s per game allowed. Tony Pollard isn’t a GPP play, but he’s almost always good for a 15/80 line. He’s hit 10 or more fantasy points in 5/7 games this season. He’s perfect for cash games, but he did not practice on Thursday, and his status is up in the air for Sunday. Spears is also banged up, meaning Julius Chestnut could be the RB1 for TEN this weekend. Chris Berman would’ve had a field day with this name.
Wide receivers: Fade!
Raiders at Bengals – O/U 46.5
Quarterbacks: The Bengals offense has not been the same without Tee Higgins. Burrow only has three TD passes over the last three games. Fade Burrow and whomever LV throws out there. Update: if Higgins ends up playing, play Burrow!
Running backs: The Bengals have a middle of the road run defense, but I expect the Raiders to play from behind as road underdogs. Fade the Raiders rushing attack. Mattison does have five receptions in two of the last three games, so that helps. Also, the Bengals have permitted five running backs to reach 90+ yards this season – Stevenson and Hubbard are examples of RB’s from bad teams that have popped versus CIN, with both having exceeded 100 rushing yards.
Mattison is not in a great spot, but he is a large-field GPP play.
The Bengals are favored by a touchdown at home against a Raiders unit that ranks 20th in YPC permitted and 24th in rushing TD’s allowed per game. Chase Brown is projected to be chalky this week – he’s shown flashes and could pop soon. He’s a solid play in all formats that now he’s getting most of the work in the CIN backfield.
Wide receivers: The Raiders pass defense is solid on paper, but they haven’t faced the best passing games in the league. Chase is a start in all formats.
Jakobi Meyers is getting a lot of volume, but I have no confidence in Raiders QB’s to help him hit his ceiling.
Broncos at Ravens – O/U 45.5
Quarterbacks: Nix has exceeded 20 fantasy points in three of the last four games. He’s playable in all formats, as is Lamar.
Running backs: Denver is ranked fifth in the NFL in YPC surrendered. Henry is a coin toss this week.
The Ravens are vulnerable versus the pass, but their run defense is one of the best in the NFL. Fade Williams this week.
Wide receivers: The Ravens have surrendered the most fantasy PPG to wide receivers so far, so Courtland Sutton is playable in all formats.
Denver has a stout pass defense – Zay Flowers will get the volume, but a 20+ fantasy point game seems unlikely.
Bears at Cardinals – O/U 44.5
Quarterbacks: Kyler Murray has exceeded 20 fantasy points in three of the last four games. Chicago has allowed the lowest QB rating and fewest passing touchdowns in the league. Murray is playing well enough, but this is a good week to fade him.
Arizona has given up the sixth most yards per attempt and the sixth best passer rating to opposing signal callers this season. Caleb Williams should bounce back this week, and is a solid GPP play.
Running backs: Arizona is in the bottom-third of the league in YPC and rushing TD’s allowed. Fire up Swift in all formats.
The Bears are 23rd in the NFL in YPC permitted and have allowed four running backs to reach 80 yards+, with five touchdowns combined. James Conner is playable in all formats.
Wide receivers: Moore, Allen, and Harrison Jr are all boom/bust GPP plays. Avoid for cash games.
Jaguars at Eagles – O/U 45.5
Quarterbacks: The Eagles pass defense is sixth in the NFL in YPA allowed and passing TD’s permitted. Fade Lawrence.
In contrast, the Jax Jags are next to last in YPA permitted, making Jalen Hurts a prime option in all formats.
Running backs: The Eagles have not permitted a single 100 yard+ rushing performance and have surrendered 3.7 YPC over their last three games. Fade the JAX running attack this weekend.
The Jaguars have only allowed two RB’s to exceed 64 yards and rank sixth in the NFL in YPC permitted. It is hard to suggest fading Saquon, but I’d probably avoid him in cash games. He’s a weekly GPP play due to his slate-breaking upside.
Wide receivers: The Jax Jags are 30th in the NFL in FPPG permitted to wide receivers. Brown and Smith are playable in all formats.
Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are both questionable and could miss this contest. Parker Washington could be an excellent value option. Keep an eye on the news leading up to kickoff.
Lions at Packers – O/U 45.5
Quarterbacks: Jordan Love is questionable versus DET – keep an eye on his status ahead of kickoff. Both pass defenses fall into the “middle of the road” category. Love and Goff are fine cash game options, and I would play Love in GPPs. The passing volume isn’t there for Goff to pop off with a GPP-winning performance.
Running backs: The Packers are eighth in the NFL in YPC permitted but have allowed five RB’s to exceed 93 yards. They are 14th in rushing TD’s per game allowed, and two RB’s have scored two or more in a game versus this unit. Jahmyr Gibbs recently torched the Vikings defense while on the road, so don’t be deterred by the venue. He’s playable in all formats.
Detroit has struggled against the run at times, but no RB has exceeded 100 rushing yards against this unit in 2024. They rank 27 in YPC permitted and 16th in rushing TD’s per game allowed. If Jordan Love is out due to injury, Jacobs will get a lot of work. Unfortunately, Jacobs is also questionable – be sure to check his status prior to kickoff. He’s a solid play in all formats if healthy.
Wide receivers: Detroit has been smoked by slot receivers this year, surrendering the most fantasy points per game and receiving yards to them. Jayden Reed could bounce back in a big way this week – fire him up in GPPs. The floor isn’t there for cash games, so beware.
Amon-Ra is Amon-Ra. Play him weekly.
Rams at Seahawks – O/U 48.5
Quarterbacks: Geno Smith has cooled off a bit, but the LA pass defense is 27th in YPA allowed, and has permitted the seventh highest passer rating in the league. He’s only had one game with single digit fantasy points, so he’s a solid play in cash games. Is the GPP upside there? Probably not, but at under $6000 on DK, he is worth a try.
Matthew Stafford’s weapons are back, and he’s up against a pass D that has given up the fifth-most passing touchdowns and the second-highest passer rating. Fire him up in all formats, the price is too good to pass up.
Running backs: The Seahawks rank 28th in the NFL in YPC surrendered and 20th in rushing TD’s per game. Kyren is a solid start in all formats.
The Rams are slightly better against the run. Walker is the lead back, but I am weary of Charbonnet cutting into his workload. This one is a tossup.
Wide receivers: Kupp and Nacua are playable in all formats.
Even with Metcalf out due to injury, it’s hard to trust Lockett and company.