Cash games saved the day for me last week. My GPP risks didn’t pay off, most notably Will Levis and Calvin Ridley.
At any rate, there’s an action-packed slate ahead of us in week two!
Steelers at Broncos – O/U 36.5
Vegas projects a low-scoring slog of a game. If you squint, you can find some value:
- Justin Fields is always an intriguing start, especially in large-field tournaments.
- Jaylen Warren is injured, so Najee Harris will get a bell cow workload.
- Denver allowed the THIRD most rushing yards in the NFL last season
- Pat Freiermuth is playable since Surtain II will be covering Pickens, but there are better options at TE this week.
While the fantasy world is focused on shiny new object Jayden Daniels, Fields is a savvy pivot in large-field GPPs. Otherwise, Harris is the only player in my player pool from this game for both GPPs and cash. The Draftkings price ($5500), workload, and matchup are all too good to pass up.
Bengals at Chiefs – O/U 48
On paper, this has the makings of a fantasy-friendly matchup. With an over-under of 48 and plenty of weapons on both sides, it makes sense.
There’s a lot of uncertainty – Joe Burrow looked rusty against the Pats last week and his wrist is a concern. Tee Higgins is hurt, and Ja’Marr Chase barely practiced during training camp. This game script could go a number of ways, and the Bengals are in a tough spot on the road in a tough environment against a top 5 defense.
As of right now, the Chiefs are a popular stack – projected ownership is as follows:
Mahomes: 13% – Rice: 22% – Kelce: 15% – Pacheco: 12%
In contrast, the field isn’t very bullish on the Bengals:
Burrow: 1.3% – Chase: 5% – Moss: 6%
The uncertainty surrounding the Bengals has created a prime buying opportunity for large-field GPPs. I’d avoid in smaller-field GPPs and certainly in cash, but in 20+ entry tournaments? Fire up Burrow and Chase, and bring it back with a piece form KC.
Rams at Cardinals – O/U 46
The Cooper Kupp mega-chalk at $7600 on Drafkings is hard to argue against. He checks all of the boxes. Kyren Williams will also be mega-chalk. Robinson, Johnson, and Parkinson are all projected to be 20% owned at minimum.
At first glance, Marvin Harrsion Jr. doesn’t seem like a good buy at $6900 on Draftkings. For cash games and single-entry GPPs, I’d avoid him. But for large-field tournaments, he is a perfect play. Here’s why:
- He’s projected to be less than 1% owned as of this writing
- His massive upside hasn’t suddenly disappeared
- This game could easily shootout
- He’s the perfect bringback to a chalky LA stack
Harrison presents a worthy risk in large GPPs. If you don’t have the stomach for Harrison, Trey McBride ran routes of 90% of his snaps last week, and could easily be the top-scoring TE on the slate this week.
Lastly, James Conner is a bell cow. He had 84% of Arizona’s carries last week, and that won’t change anytime soon barring injury.
Giants at Commanders – O/U 44
As Twitter/X user Anthony_I10 points out, Wan’Dale Robinson is flying under the radar because of Malik Nabers, and the Commanders blitz a lot. This means Daniel Jones needs someone he has chemistry with, and Robinson fits the bill.
Robinson is certainly a worthy play in large-field GPPs.
Otherwise, Daniel Jones and Malik Nabers are a cheap stack with upside, but it’s hard to put any faith in Jones. I’m fading the Giants this week except for Robinson.
For Washington, Jayden Daniels is projecting to be a chalky play at QB. Last week, he was a checkdown machine and ran a lot. He was able to score almost 30 Draftkings points thanks to two rushing TDs. He clearly has the upside one looks for in GPPs.
In terms of running, Brian Robinson is a solid cash game play, but his GPP upside is capped by Ekeler.
I’m not big on Commanders’ receivers this week. Until Daniels shows chemistry with this group, I’m avoiding.
Jets at Titans – O/U 41
I made the mistake of stacking Levis and Ridley in GPPs last week, and those lineups tanked. Levis can sling it, but the accuracy isn’t there yet. There’s upside, but I don’t see it happening against the Jets.
In contrast, the Titans running game is playable – Pollard had 80% of the carries last week and didn’t look awful. I like him for cash games due to volume, but not so much for GPPs. This doesn’t feel like a smash spot.
Breece Hall’s talent is undeniable, but doubts about the NYJ offensive line give me pause, especially at $7400 (DK).
Overall, I’d fade this entire game for GPPs, even single entry.
Seahawks at Patriots – O/U 38.5
Vegas projects this one as a low-scoring slog.
Kenneth Walker III missed practice on Thursday and may not play. Surprisingly, Zack Charbonnet is priced at $5800, which isn’t low enough for my liking. I’m fading all Seahawks for this one.
Rhamondre Stevenson led the NFL in week 1 with 75 rushing yards after contact. Wow. He’s a solid play for cash games due to volume, but the stout Seahawks d-line might cap his upside.
DeMario Douglas is an interesting play at $4500. He’s projected at under 1% ownership, and is the WR1 in New England. This is where game script comes into play – I can see a scenario where the Seahawks take a two-TD lead, and the Patriots are forced to throw. If that happens, this could open up a ton of value for Douglas. This is not the likeliest scenario given the Vegas line, but remember, GPPs are about taking risks.
This is a GPP-only play, but I will be putting Douglas in a few lineups.
On the other side, the Seahawks will be traveling across the country to play in a tough environment. I just don’t see any pieces working out well for fantasy.
49ers at Vikings – O/U 46.5
In 2023, the Vikings ranked 20th in the NFL in rushes of 10+ yards surrendered. The Vikings blitz a ton, and this bodes well for Purdy and the 49ers intermediate passing game. Expect quick strikes to Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle. If CMC doesn’t play, Mason is an obvious play but expect that ownership to be sky high. Good chalk is good chalk though. I like the Purdy-Kittle combo for cash games, but don’t know that there is enough upside to take down a GPP.
As for the Vikings, Sam Darnold looked competent last week and was very efficient with his 24 attempts. He didn’t need to pass much as they won 28-6 vs the NYG, but the Vikings will likely be playing from behind this Sunday. Here’s the fun part – Darnold and Justin Jefferson are both projected at sub-5% ownership. I would ABSOLUTELY play Jefferson in large-field GPPs at below 5%.
Given that the Vikings will likely play from behind, I’m fading Aaron Jones this week.
Browns at Jaguars – O/U 45
Start Jerome Ford in cash games due to volume. Otherwise, this game could be a clunker.
Colts at Packers – O/U 47
I’ll keep this short – Richardson is worth playing weekly. Taylor is risky at almost $8k, but Barkley ran through the Pack last week. Otherwise, there aren’t many pieces in play here.
Buccaneers at Lions O/U 48.5
The game stack possibilities for this one are plentiful. Do you stack Mayfield and Evans and bring it back with Williams? Goff and St. Brown with a Godwin bringback? Goff, Williams, LaPorta with an Evans bringback? There are so many ways to get to this game. The Vegas line is favorable, they’re playing on that track in Detroit, and both sides have a lot of weapons.
I’d be lying if I told you EXACTLY who to play. My best advice is to make sure you play pieces of this game in all formats.
Saints at Cowboys – O/U 44.5
Dallas has a top-5 defense. They’ve only allowed 14 QB fantasy points per game since the start of last season. This will probably be a rough day for Derek Carr and company.
Overall, the only player from this game my player pool is CeeDee Lamb.
Chargers at Panthers – O/U 39
Ladd McConkey might be serviceable. Otherwise, I’m not wasting my time on this game.
Raiders at Ravens – O/U 44
Brock Bowers was targeted 8 times last week, and was one of the few tight ends that scored double-digit fantasy points.
Lamar Jackson is always worth playing in DFS, so there’s that.